DeafSCUBA98
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http://www.msnbc.com/news/960340.asp
Don't PANIC Guys!
Sept. 2 — Astronomers reported Tuesday that a kilometer-wide asteroid could hit Earth in 2014 — but don’t panic just yet: The chances of a catastrophic collision are currently about 1 in a million, and the risk is likely to drop to zero as more observations are made.
ASTEROID 2003 QQ47 will be closely monitored over the next two months. The date currently judged to have the highest potential for a collision is March 21, 2014, and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory put the cumulative risk of an impact in the next century at 1 in 909,000 as of Tuesday.
That’s in the same ballpark as the “background risk” for a catastrophic cosmic impact in any given year. Because this asteroid has been observed only since Aug. 24, the margin of error is relatively large. As more observations come in from astronomers around the world, the uncertainty about 2003 QQ47’s orbit will be narrowed down. If this case follows the pattern of all other asteroid alerts, the risk should be eliminated once enough observations are made.
The British government’s Near Earth Object Information Center issued the alert Tuesday about 2003 QQ47 after the giant rock was first observed in New Mexico by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program. The 2014 encounter was given a rare rating of 1 on the Torino Scale of asteroid and comet threats.
“The Near Earth Object will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over this period,” said Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen’s University in Belfast, one of the astronomers advising the British center.
Astronomers say 2003 QQ47 merits careful monitoring because it’s so big: With an estimated diameter of 0.77 mile (1.24 kilometer), the space rock could have the effect of millions of Hiroshima atomic bombs. Such impacts are thought to have contributed to mass extinctions on Earth, including the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
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Asteroids are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance from the Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them into an orbit that crosses Earth’s own.
Over the past several years, JPL has listed numerous asteroids as potential threats, only to be removed from the list after further information.
“A listing is not a declaration that an object is predicted to impact, or even come close to the earth at that time, only that the possibility has not been ruled out,” JPL’s Jon Giorgini cautioned in a posting to the CC/Net mailing list on impact issues. “As far as the public is concerned, it just isn’t worth getting worked up over an object with a couple weeks of optical data showing a possible Earth encounter years from now.”
Don't PANIC Guys!
Sept. 2 — Astronomers reported Tuesday that a kilometer-wide asteroid could hit Earth in 2014 — but don’t panic just yet: The chances of a catastrophic collision are currently about 1 in a million, and the risk is likely to drop to zero as more observations are made.
ASTEROID 2003 QQ47 will be closely monitored over the next two months. The date currently judged to have the highest potential for a collision is March 21, 2014, and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory put the cumulative risk of an impact in the next century at 1 in 909,000 as of Tuesday.
That’s in the same ballpark as the “background risk” for a catastrophic cosmic impact in any given year. Because this asteroid has been observed only since Aug. 24, the margin of error is relatively large. As more observations come in from astronomers around the world, the uncertainty about 2003 QQ47’s orbit will be narrowed down. If this case follows the pattern of all other asteroid alerts, the risk should be eliminated once enough observations are made.
The British government’s Near Earth Object Information Center issued the alert Tuesday about 2003 QQ47 after the giant rock was first observed in New Mexico by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program. The 2014 encounter was given a rare rating of 1 on the Torino Scale of asteroid and comet threats.
“The Near Earth Object will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over this period,” said Alan Fitzsimmons of Queen’s University in Belfast, one of the astronomers advising the British center.
Astronomers say 2003 QQ47 merits careful monitoring because it’s so big: With an estimated diameter of 0.77 mile (1.24 kilometer), the space rock could have the effect of millions of Hiroshima atomic bombs. Such impacts are thought to have contributed to mass extinctions on Earth, including the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
Advertisement
Asteroids are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance from the Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them into an orbit that crosses Earth’s own.
Over the past several years, JPL has listed numerous asteroids as potential threats, only to be removed from the list after further information.
“A listing is not a declaration that an object is predicted to impact, or even come close to the earth at that time, only that the possibility has not been ruled out,” JPL’s Jon Giorgini cautioned in a posting to the CC/Net mailing list on impact issues. “As far as the public is concerned, it just isn’t worth getting worked up over an object with a couple weeks of optical data showing a possible Earth encounter years from now.”
