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If the world could vote, it's Kerry in a landslide
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - If the people of the rest of the world could vote in November's US elections, Democratic Senator John Kerry would beat President George W Bush in a landslide. That is the finding of a poll conducted by GlobeScan Incorporated and its affiliates during July and August of nearly 35,000 people in 35 countries in all regions of the world.
The survey, which was released by GlobeScan and the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) here on Wednesday, found that Kerry was favored over Bush by an average of 46% versus 20% in the 35 countries polled, but by a much larger margin among respondents in traditional US allies in Western Europe.
"Only one in five [wants] to see Bush re-elected," said Steven Kull, PIPA's executive director. "Though he is not as well known, Kerry would win handily if the people of the world were to elect the US president."
Majorities or pluralities of respondents in 30 out of the 35 countries polled said they preferred to see Kerry win, while in only three countries - the Philippines, Nigeria and Poland - was Bush the favored candidate.
The tally in two Asian countries, India and Thailand, showed the race to be within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.3-5 percentage points. In India, Kerry led Bush 34-33%, while in Thailand, Bush led Kerry 33-30%, according to the survey.
Particularly notable was the finding that among countries that have contributed troops to the US-led military operation in Iraq, not only was Kerry heavily favored, but respondents also said their view of US foreign policy has gotten worse under Bush. Countries that fell into this category included the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, the Dominican Republic, Kazakhstan, Japan, Norway and Spain.
The two exceptions were the Philippines and Poland. In the former, 57% said they preferred Bush over Kerry and a comparable percentage said their view of US foreign policy had improved since Bush became president. The survey, however, was taken just before Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo withdrew Filipino troops from Iraq in the wake of demands by insurgents who had taken a Filipino truck driver hostage. The Philippines was the only country where a majority of respondents said they favored Bush.
In Poland, where only a modest 31-26% plurality said they favored Bush over Kerry, 41% nonetheless said their view of US foreign policy had gotten worse under Bush, while only 15% said it had gotten better.
Overall, a majority or plurality in 31 of the 35 countries said Bush had made them feel "worse" about US foreign policy. Overall, 53% of respondents in all countries agreed with that position, while 19% said that he had made them feel "better" about Washington's role in the world.
Majorities who said their views of US policy had become "worse" under Bush - ranging from two-thirds to more than 80% - were particularly heavy among Western Europeans and Latin Americans.
"Perhaps most sobering for Americans is the strength of the view that US foreign policy is on the wrong track, even in countries contributing troops in Iraq," said GlobeScan president Doug Miller. GlobeScan, a global consulting firm, polls mainly for private clients - mostly multinational corporations.
The survey results could play a role in the campaign, if only because both Kerry and Bush have made foreign policy, the US role in the world, and Iraq a central part of their campaign messages. Kerry, in particular, has claimed that Bush's unilateralism in carrying out his "war on terrorism" has needlessly alienated US allies and altered foreign opinion, with potentially disastrous consequences.
His claim, which was based mostly on previous polls by the Pew Global Attitudes Project that showed a sharp drop in the percentage of foreigners, particularly in Europe and the Islamic world, who expressed favorable opinions of the United States over the past four years, is sure to be bolstered by the new survey, which polled between 500 and 1,500 people in each of the 35 countries.
Most of the polling was done in face-to-face interviews, although in some countries interviews were conducted by telephone. In 11 poor countries - Brazil, China, the Dominican Republic, India, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela - the poll was confined to urban areas.
Overall, an average of about one-third of respondents did not express an opinion when asked which candidate they favored.
Among Washington's traditional North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, Kerry was strongly preferred over Bush. The biggest margin was found in Norway, with 74-7%; in Germany, it was 74-10%; in France 64-5%; the Netherlands, 63-6%; Italy (whose prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has been a staunch Bush advocate), 58-14%; Spain, 45-7%; and Britain, 47-16%.
In Canada, Kerry was preferred by 61% to 16%, and in Japan, the margin was a closer 43% to 23%. In traditionally neutral Sweden, the margin was 58% to 10%.
In Central Europe - sometimes referred to as the "New Europe" - the picture was more mixed, with the Poles giving Bush a slight plurality, but the Czechs falling much more into the Western European camp, giving Kerry a 42-18% edge.
According to the survey, Asian views were also more mixed, although a majority of 52% to 12% of Chinese respondents preferred Kerry over Bush, and a majority of 57% of Indonesians opted for the Massachusetts senator versus 34% who said they favored Bush. A majority of Filipinos went for Bush, while Indians and Thais were closely divided.
In Latin America, however, Kerry swept all of the nine countries that were polled. In two cases, he gained a majority - Brazil (57-14%) and the Dominican Republic (51-38%). In the rest, he scored strong pluralities, including Venezuela (48-22%), Colombia (47-26%), Argentina (43-6%), Mexico (38-18%), Uruguay (37-5%) and Bolivia (25-16%).
In Africa, Bush did best in Nigeria, where 33% of respondents said they preferred him versus 27% who opted for Kerry. But Kerry emerged as the clear favorite in five other African countries - Kenya (58-25%), Ghana (48-24%), Tanzania (44-30%), South Africa (43-29%) and Zimbabwe (28-6%).
Respondents tended to be least responsive in central Eurasia. In Russia, Kerry was preferred by 20% versus 10%; in Turkey, the margin was 40% to 25%; and in Kazakhstan, the margin was 40% to 12%.
The strongest negative views of US foreign policy under Bush were found in Germany, where 83% of respondents said their image of Washington's role in the world had gotten worse. Other countries with similar perceptions included France (81%); Mexico (78%); China (72%); Canada and the Netherlands (71%); Spain (67%); Brazil and Italy (66%); Argentina (65%); and Britain (64%).
The only countries where a majority or plurality of respondents said their opinion of the US foreign policy under Bush had improved were the Philippines (58% better, 27% worse); India (38% better, 33% worse), and Thailand (35% better, 30% worse). Respondents in Nigeria and Venezuela were roughly equally divided.
(Inter Press Service)
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - If the people of the rest of the world could vote in November's US elections, Democratic Senator John Kerry would beat President George W Bush in a landslide. That is the finding of a poll conducted by GlobeScan Incorporated and its affiliates during July and August of nearly 35,000 people in 35 countries in all regions of the world.
The survey, which was released by GlobeScan and the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) here on Wednesday, found that Kerry was favored over Bush by an average of 46% versus 20% in the 35 countries polled, but by a much larger margin among respondents in traditional US allies in Western Europe.
"Only one in five [wants] to see Bush re-elected," said Steven Kull, PIPA's executive director. "Though he is not as well known, Kerry would win handily if the people of the world were to elect the US president."
Majorities or pluralities of respondents in 30 out of the 35 countries polled said they preferred to see Kerry win, while in only three countries - the Philippines, Nigeria and Poland - was Bush the favored candidate.
The tally in two Asian countries, India and Thailand, showed the race to be within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.3-5 percentage points. In India, Kerry led Bush 34-33%, while in Thailand, Bush led Kerry 33-30%, according to the survey.
Particularly notable was the finding that among countries that have contributed troops to the US-led military operation in Iraq, not only was Kerry heavily favored, but respondents also said their view of US foreign policy has gotten worse under Bush. Countries that fell into this category included the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, the Dominican Republic, Kazakhstan, Japan, Norway and Spain.
The two exceptions were the Philippines and Poland. In the former, 57% said they preferred Bush over Kerry and a comparable percentage said their view of US foreign policy had improved since Bush became president. The survey, however, was taken just before Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo withdrew Filipino troops from Iraq in the wake of demands by insurgents who had taken a Filipino truck driver hostage. The Philippines was the only country where a majority of respondents said they favored Bush.
In Poland, where only a modest 31-26% plurality said they favored Bush over Kerry, 41% nonetheless said their view of US foreign policy had gotten worse under Bush, while only 15% said it had gotten better.
Overall, a majority or plurality in 31 of the 35 countries said Bush had made them feel "worse" about US foreign policy. Overall, 53% of respondents in all countries agreed with that position, while 19% said that he had made them feel "better" about Washington's role in the world.
Majorities who said their views of US policy had become "worse" under Bush - ranging from two-thirds to more than 80% - were particularly heavy among Western Europeans and Latin Americans.
"Perhaps most sobering for Americans is the strength of the view that US foreign policy is on the wrong track, even in countries contributing troops in Iraq," said GlobeScan president Doug Miller. GlobeScan, a global consulting firm, polls mainly for private clients - mostly multinational corporations.
The survey results could play a role in the campaign, if only because both Kerry and Bush have made foreign policy, the US role in the world, and Iraq a central part of their campaign messages. Kerry, in particular, has claimed that Bush's unilateralism in carrying out his "war on terrorism" has needlessly alienated US allies and altered foreign opinion, with potentially disastrous consequences.
His claim, which was based mostly on previous polls by the Pew Global Attitudes Project that showed a sharp drop in the percentage of foreigners, particularly in Europe and the Islamic world, who expressed favorable opinions of the United States over the past four years, is sure to be bolstered by the new survey, which polled between 500 and 1,500 people in each of the 35 countries.
Most of the polling was done in face-to-face interviews, although in some countries interviews were conducted by telephone. In 11 poor countries - Brazil, China, the Dominican Republic, India, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela - the poll was confined to urban areas.
Overall, an average of about one-third of respondents did not express an opinion when asked which candidate they favored.
Among Washington's traditional North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, Kerry was strongly preferred over Bush. The biggest margin was found in Norway, with 74-7%; in Germany, it was 74-10%; in France 64-5%; the Netherlands, 63-6%; Italy (whose prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has been a staunch Bush advocate), 58-14%; Spain, 45-7%; and Britain, 47-16%.
In Canada, Kerry was preferred by 61% to 16%, and in Japan, the margin was a closer 43% to 23%. In traditionally neutral Sweden, the margin was 58% to 10%.
In Central Europe - sometimes referred to as the "New Europe" - the picture was more mixed, with the Poles giving Bush a slight plurality, but the Czechs falling much more into the Western European camp, giving Kerry a 42-18% edge.
According to the survey, Asian views were also more mixed, although a majority of 52% to 12% of Chinese respondents preferred Kerry over Bush, and a majority of 57% of Indonesians opted for the Massachusetts senator versus 34% who said they favored Bush. A majority of Filipinos went for Bush, while Indians and Thais were closely divided.
In Latin America, however, Kerry swept all of the nine countries that were polled. In two cases, he gained a majority - Brazil (57-14%) and the Dominican Republic (51-38%). In the rest, he scored strong pluralities, including Venezuela (48-22%), Colombia (47-26%), Argentina (43-6%), Mexico (38-18%), Uruguay (37-5%) and Bolivia (25-16%).
In Africa, Bush did best in Nigeria, where 33% of respondents said they preferred him versus 27% who opted for Kerry. But Kerry emerged as the clear favorite in five other African countries - Kenya (58-25%), Ghana (48-24%), Tanzania (44-30%), South Africa (43-29%) and Zimbabwe (28-6%).
Respondents tended to be least responsive in central Eurasia. In Russia, Kerry was preferred by 20% versus 10%; in Turkey, the margin was 40% to 25%; and in Kazakhstan, the margin was 40% to 12%.
The strongest negative views of US foreign policy under Bush were found in Germany, where 83% of respondents said their image of Washington's role in the world had gotten worse. Other countries with similar perceptions included France (81%); Mexico (78%); China (72%); Canada and the Netherlands (71%); Spain (67%); Brazil and Italy (66%); Argentina (65%); and Britain (64%).
The only countries where a majority or plurality of respondents said their opinion of the US foreign policy under Bush had improved were the Philippines (58% better, 27% worse); India (38% better, 33% worse), and Thailand (35% better, 30% worse). Respondents in Nigeria and Venezuela were roughly equally divided.
(Inter Press Service)
