Driver of exponential growth and implications

[somedeafdudefromPNW]

I keep hoping this will be disproved but I doubt it based on what I understand and this worries me a good deal. It's not something that I want to hear.

I will be long dead before I have to worry about it.

Plus...

Maybe we will colonize Mars?

Maybe?

Please?

Pretty please?

No?

WE'RE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

 

[deafskeptic]

I wonder if they can make something out of Kudzu plant.. we have plenty of it here and it goes so wildly that it is eating up trees.

I've found kudzu roots in heath food stores. I forgot what those roots are used for.

 

[sallylou]

No kudus here. We have nurtia which are horrible rodents the size of a small dog. Not a fan!

You can measure the rate of physical phenomenon and the result is sound. You can physically measure depletion and population growth. Calculus is an exact science. The mathematical answer may not be correct when incorrect assumptions are made, like in economic theory.

 

[deafskeptic]

No kudus here. We have nurtia which are horrible rodents the size of a small dog. Not a fan!

You can measure the rate of physical phenomenon and the result is sound. You can physically measure depletion and population growth. Calculus is an exact science. The mathematical answer may not be correct when incorrect assumptions are made, like in economic theory.

Good. That plant will sallow whole forests of trees. I'm not making this up. There's a reason why it's called the plant that ate the South. :P

 

[darkdog]

Well, can you guarantee something will be there to expand the existing oil reserves? Do you even know when new innovations will come save the day?

Nope. I can't guarantee anything either way. If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to put my money on it, I'd put it on an innovation coming along, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if I lost my money.

What if that innovation doesn't come until 5,000 years later?

Then let's hope we have 5,000 years worth of fossil fuels.

So, are we wrong for making assumptions based on what we KNOW?

We're wrong to take them too seriously. That's because what we are capable of knowing is a very small fraction of what we need to know to make good predictions on such matters.

 

[Lighthouse77]

Good. That plant will sallow whole forests of trees. I'm not making this up. There's a reason why it's called the plant that ate the South. :P

yep... it literally will eat the whole forest if we don't keep it under control.

 

[darkdog]

You can measure the rate of physical phenomenon and the result is sound. You can physically measure depletion and population growth. Calculus is an exact science. The mathematical answer may not be correct when incorrect assumptions are made, like in economic theory.

That only works with simple systems. The more complex the system (i.e. the more variables that affect outcomes), the more difficult it is to model and predict said outcomes. Even if the available information and assumptions are correct, if they're insufficient (as they often are in this highly complex and non-deterministic world), then the outcomes are still unknown. Hence, the difficulty in predicting at what point overpopulation occurs, oil runs out, etc.