Driver of exponential growth and implications

[sallylou]

For TXgolfer and any other interested persons:

Exponential growth is represented by the function e to the x power. In English, that means that the function is a curve with a slope that increases faster as the exponent increases.

see curve here:

Exponential Functions: Introduction

This function typically applies to things like bacterial growth, population growth, etc. It also applies to decay (e.g., radio active decay) and depletion (e.g., diminishing resources).

It's hard to wrap your mind around exponential growth, but it has very important consequences. Here's a captioned video that explains it in an easy to understand way:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM1x4RljmnE]YouTube - Are Humans Smarter Than Yeast?[/ame]

Note that at some point, exponential growth destroys itself. That's why it's not a good model for business development or political decisions unless you plan for destruction. Most often, the model is not understood, and people act surprised by the inevitable result.

 

[Lighthouse77]

reminds me of kudzu plants.

 

[sallylou]

I had to look that up, LH. Ecological invasions are a great example.

Here, you get $100 for catching a certain type of fish that has invaded. I never can catch the little boogers!

 

[netrox]

"Note that at some point, exponential growth destroys itself. That's why it's not a good model for business development or political decisions unless you plan for destruction. Most often, the model is not understood, and people act surprised by the inevitable result."

Yep, there's always the law of diminishing returns.

 

[TXgolfer]

It is an interesting theory. I saw something similar to this years ago. As it applies to business I agree and disagree. There certainly many "micro" examples to prove it true.....especially when growth is rapid. However I believe small growth can be sustained.

Now if we are talking about global impact.....that's more complicated obviously.

 

[jillio]

For TXgolfer and any other interested persons:

Exponential growth is represented by the function e to the x power. In English, that means that the function is a curve with a slope that increases faster as the exponent increases.

see curve here:

Exponential Functions: Introduction

This function typically applies to things like bacterial growth, population growth, etc. It also applies to decay (e.g., radio active decay) and depletion (e.g., diminishing resources).

It's hard to wrap your mind around exponential growth, but it has very important consequences. Here's a captioned video that explains it in an easy to understand way:

YouTube - Are Humans Smarter Than Yeast?

Note that at some point, exponential growth destroys itself. That's why it's not a good model for business development or political decisions unless you plan for destruction. Most often, the model is not understood, and people act surprised by the inevitable result.

You'd think that with as many people around here claiming to not only understand, but have been involved with, research, that would be common knowledge.:shrug:

 

[jillio]

It is an interesting theory. I saw something similar to this years ago. As it applies to business I agree and disagree. There certainly many "micro" examples to prove it true.....especially when growth is rapid. However I believe small growth can be sustained.

Now if we are talking about global impact.....that's more complicated obviously.

Uhhh...it isn't a theory.

 

[sallylou]

It's not a theory. It's mathematical fact. Mathematics education in America does not do a good job of teaching people about this.

"Break even" is a linear equation. You can determine the exact price at which a company can "break even." With exponential growth, you can determine the exact point at which growth becomes unsustainable or depletion is complete.

 

[deafskeptic]

reminds me of kudzu plants.

ha ha, that's the perfect example!

 

[deafskeptic]

I had to look that up, LH. Ecological invasions are a great example.

Here, you get $100 for catching a certain type of fish that has invaded. I never can catch the little boogers!

I take it you don't have kudzu where you live?

 

[somedeafdudefromPNW]

We got zebra mussels.

 

[TXgolfer]

It's not a theory. It's mathematical fact. Mathematics education in America does not do a good job of teaching people about this.

"Break even" is a linear equation. You can determine the exact price at which a company can "break even." With exponential growth, you can determine the exact point at which growth becomes unsustainable or depletion is complete.

I don't disagree with the math......I disagree with the way it is sometimes applied.

 

[darkdog]

With exponential growth, you can determine the exact point at which growth becomes unsustainable or depletion is complete.

I don't agree with that. People have been making bad predictions about overpopulation and resource depletion since the days of Malthus. Peak oil theories never seem to materialize because we keep finding "unexpected" reserves of oil. Humans keep finding ways to use resources more efficiently (i.e. the green revolution). Nobody doubts that growth can't continue to infinity except in pure math, but we've been notoriously bad at predicting the upper limits of growth.

Even when it comes to something like the national debt, all I think we can really say is that we're headed towards very harsh and painful times if we don't reign it in. It would be foolish to pinpoint exactly how high the debt can go before things tumble or when that will happen.

 

[somedeafdudefromPNW]

I don't agree with that. People have been making bad predictions about overpopulation and resource depletion since the days of Malthus. Peak oil theories never seem to materialize because we keep finding "unexpected" reserves of oil. Humans keep finding ways to use resources more efficiently (i.e. the green revolution). Nobody doubts that growth can't continue to infinity except in pure math, but we've been notoriously bad at predicting the upper limits of growth.

Unaccounted variables. Doesn't make their prediction any less true in the virtual world they made their assumption on. Peak oil theory was true, at the time, up until we discovered how to extract oil from the tar sands. All that did was set the peak oil prediction back a bit further.

So not bad predictions. Situations change.

 

[darkdog]

Unaccounted variables. Doesn't make their prediction any less true in the virtual world they made their assumption on. Peak oil theory was true, at the time, up until we discovered how to extract oil from the tar sands. All that did was set the peak oil prediction back a bit further.

So not bad predictions. Situations change.

That's my point. What good are models if they only work in some fantasy world that doesn't exist? If people would learn from that and stop screaming about the end of oil, fine, but every time the gas prices jump, we hear once again a bunch of doomsday predictions about peak oil.

 

[somedeafdudefromPNW]

That's my point. What good are models if they only work in some fantasy world that doesn't exist? If people would learn from that and stop screaming about the end of oil, fine, but every time the gas prices jump, we hear once again a bunch of doomsday predictions about peak oil.

Well, can you guarantee something will be there to expand the existing oil reserves? Do you even know when new innovations will come save the day?

What if that innovation doesn't come until 5,000 years later?

Remember, human population didn't explode rapidly until the Agricultural Revolution... 10,000 years ago. That means, if anthropology is correct, humans have reached peak population quite a few times for 290,000 years prior to the Agricultural Revolution.

So, are we wrong for making assumptions based on what we KNOW?

 

[netrox]

We will run out of oil that we take for granted.

That's why we're going "green."

I recall reading an interesting article that scientists found a way to create oil from plants at incredible efficiency that it can be as cheap as today's oil using nanotechnology. We'll see. If that's true then it's a HUGE milestone.

 

[netrox]

But again, remember, even with plant-oil conversion, there's a limit to that. We cannot just keep growing more and more crops with more people. They will have to start moving into space.

 

[deafskeptic]

Well, can you guarantee something will be there to expand the existing oil reserves? Do you even know when new innovations will come save the day?

What if that innovation doesn't come until 5,000 years later?

Remember, human population didn't explode rapidly until the Agricultural Revolution... 10,000 years ago. That means, if anthropology is correct, humans have reached peak population quite a few times for 290,000 years prior to the Agricultural Revolution.

So, are we wrong for making assumptions based on what we KNOW?

I keep hoping this will be disproved but I doubt it based on what I understand and this worries me a good deal. It's not something that I want to hear.

 

[Lighthouse77]

We will run out of oil that we take for granted.

That's why we're going "green."

I recall reading an interesting article that scientists found a way to create oil from plants at incredible efficiency that it can be as cheap as today's oil using nanotechnology. We'll see. If that's true then it's a HUGE milestone.

I wonder if they can make something out of Kudzu plant.. we have plenty of it here and it goes so wildly that it is eating up trees.