How to BEAT the lotto

Endymion

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Some people here in this forum put money into lotto tickets. They hope to make money. Even good ol' Endymion wants money too. But let's see what the real story is behind the Lotto.

According to the Virginia Lottery, the odds of winning a Mega Millions jackpot is: 1 in 135,145,920. That means if you buy lotto tickets for one dollar, you may have to spend $135,149,920 (that's 135 MILLION dollars) before you win a jackpot.

If you buy one ticket per week for a Mega Millions jackpot every week for twenty years, you will have spent $1,040 dollars. Your chances of winning are almost zero until you start to spend near $135 million.

So for playing the lotto for twenty years (52 weeks times $1 a week times 20 years), your net cash gain is: $ -1,040. You lost over a thousand dollars on your investment. That's right, for each person here in AllDeaf, if you play the lotto at $1 per week for 20 years, you will lose $1,040.

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Fortunately, there's a way to earn more money than the $ -1,040 the lotto gives you!

I'm going to keep this very basic. Let's say you take your $52 (52 weeks times $1 a week) every year and you put it into an investment that yields 10% compounded annually for twenty years.

Through calculations, we find that after 20 years, you will have $2,978! You have over four thousand more dollars in net cash flow than you would have had if you bought lotto tickets!

Results for $1 a week:
Return on investment for Lotto: $ -1,040
Return on investment for 10%: $2,978
Difference: $4,018

But let's make this more fun. Let's say instead of investing $1 in a week, you put in $2. That means every year, you'll put in $104.

Results for $2 a week:
Return on investment for Lotto: $ -2,080
Return on investment for 10%: $5,956
Difference: $8,036

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The point? If you want to get money to buy your mother a house, invest it elsewhere. See a financial advisor about how to invest, they are VERY helpful! The more you spend on the lotto, the more you lose. The more you invest, the more you win.

And just for those who are curious, let's say you invest $200 a month ($2,400 a year) for twenty years, compounded annually at 10%. How much money do you have at the end of 20 years? $137,460! You only put in $48,000 over 20 years, which means you made $89,460! The power of the time value of money is amazing, isn't it?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
For those of you who are curious, the formula I used for most of my calculations is:

FVA = C * ((1+r)^t-1)/r, where:

FVA = Future Value of Annuity (we're trying to find this)
r = interest rate (12% is .12, 10% is .1, etc.)
t = # of years
C = amount of money put in each year
 
A very good way of seeing the 'downfalls' of constantly purchasing lottery tickets over a period of time compared to making good use of an investment, you stand a better, much better chance of losing $$ than having 'luck' winning a big lottery. Then again, for some, they may still want to take their chances on winning the mega-bucks and buy 'mom' that house! ;)

Thanks for taking the time and consideration to formulate this to give a different perspective view-- :ty:

Also, a good point to bring up, it's never too late to start investing!! :)
 
Yep, that is a very good way to explain the pitfalls of trying to "win" the lottery. I like the visual on how investments are a better "bet" :D

Another spin on the futility of doing the lottery. Many years ago, the Washington Post did a story on past lottery (MD) winners with the theme "Where are they now?" Well, it was very interesting and while I wasn't exactly surprised, it was still very sad. The Post looked at 20 years of previous winners and found that not one of them really made good on the money that they won. The stories were different but the same basic result everytime. These people essentially took the money and ran with it. Brought stuff and wasted it big time. After the proceeds were finished (the MD lottery was one where you got the money in installments over a period of years [to defer the tax liability]), these people had nothing to fall back on. In many cases, their families were either very messed up or destroyed due to the conflicting loyalities over the bonanza.

The moral of the story is simple...be careful what you ask for, you may get it. Actually, another old cliche is a better one..."Money can't buy happiness".
 
That is true that money cant buy happiness or love. That what I always tell my son but he kept talking about money money cuz his father is a greedy with money. So I will find a way to invest his money to teach him to learn that money isn't everything. Love is more important then money and that what I always tell him.

Good job Endymion!!!
 
Endymion...

That really wasn't your best work. Don't take it personally. :) First of all, 10% returns are actually outsized and near-miraculous given today's tepid investment climate. Secondly, you forgot two destructive forces involved in investing; Inflation & taxes. Actually, taxes don't enter the equation once the investments are parked in tax-free investment vehicles. That leaves the ugly specter of inflation.

However, investing in one's future in sound investment mechanisms is still the best way for a person to prepare for his/her retirement, no question! It is far better than not saving or investing at all.

However, you raise an interesting point about the lottery system. Indeed, the odds border on criminal theft, all but sanctioned by the state. I chuckle when people here in Florida complain about casinos and related gambling legislation floating at various times before lawmakers, etc. They say that casinos are inherently evil, promoting the vice of gambling, inducing corruption and generally bringing forth urban decay and increased crime.

The casinos only take in like up to 5 percent of the overall take. This is referred to as the 'house edge' whenever people play the dices, cards, roulettes and gaming machines. Whenever possible, they already have mathematical algorithms, automatic mechanisms, and just plain oversight in order to maintain this profitable edge. Our citizens don't realize that the Florida lottery inflicts far more damage upon its gambling customers with all but impossible odds than casinos can never undertake.

Don't take me wrong; I do not want more casinos and other gambling outlets in this state! :) However, I don't like the idea of the lottery, either. That said, Florida seems committed to using it and our citizens are still subscribing to it, I'm gonna live with it.

That all said, I do participate in our lottery. Now you can call me hypocritical! :) I just gotta be smart about it; Whenever the jackpot exceeds $40 million, I just buy a single ticket. Thanks to this investment philosophy (that's a stretch!), I haven't plied the lottery trade in well over a year, as the lottery only doled out jackpots far less than $40 million.
 
*hmmmmm* Quite interesting,
Sometimes I do played lottery... I think am I not good investment..

Ookay!
 
There are some people spend their money on ciggy, junk food, soda, rent movies, pay $300 plane ticket to go see boyfriend, bottled water, HBO, expensive watches that may break someday, McDonald's, or on whatever...

And we can't buy lottery ticket everyday?

After I pay off these college loans, I am gonna pay $20 worth of lottery tickets every week..... And cut back on stuff I don't need.
 
Don't care about Lotto or gambling... there are more to life than lotto and gambling..... I rarely play statch off a card, thats all and once played casino in South Dakota.
 
Eyeth said:
Endymion...

That really wasn't your best work. Don't take it personally. :) First of all, 10% returns are actually outsized and near-miraculous given today's tepid investment climate. Secondly, you forgot two destructive forces involved in investing; Inflation & taxes. Actually, taxes don't enter the equation once the investments are parked in tax-free investment vehicles. That leaves the ugly specter of inflation.

However, investing in one's future in sound investment mechanisms is still the best way for a person to prepare for his/her retirement, no question! It is far better than not saving or investing at all.

However, you raise an interesting point about the lottery system. Indeed, the odds border on criminal theft, all but sanctioned by the state. I chuckle when people here in Florida complain about casinos and related gambling legislation floating at various times before lawmakers, etc. They say that casinos are inherently evil, promoting the vice of gambling, inducing corruption and generally bringing forth urban decay and increased crime.

The casinos only take in like up to 5 percent of the overall take. This is referred to as the 'house edge' whenever people play the dices, cards, roulettes and gaming machines. Whenever possible, they already have mathematical algorithms, automatic mechanisms, and just plain oversight in order to maintain this profitable edge. Our citizens don't realize that the Florida lottery inflicts far more damage upon its gambling customers with all but impossible odds than casinos can never undertake.

Don't take me wrong; I do not want more casinos and other gambling outlets in this state! :) However, I don't like the idea of the lottery, either. That said, Florida seems committed to using it and our citizens are still subscribing to it, I'm gonna live with it.

That all said, I do participate in our lottery. Now you can call me hypocritical! :) I just gotta be smart about it; Whenever the jackpot exceeds $40 million, I just buy a single ticket. Thanks to this investment philosophy (that's a stretch!), I haven't plied the lottery trade in well over a year, as the lottery only doled out jackpots far less than $40 million.

Yes, and I'm glad you brought up the issue of inflation and taxes. Assuming investment at 10% growth, an average of 3% inflation takes a considerable bite out of your money. It fortunately still leaves you with a substantial quantity. We also have tax sheltering available, but these options don't completely cover the tax bite.

Also, 10% is not wholly unrealistic. Many advisors suggest that if you're investing in stocks (and you should do this only if you have a high-risk profile, or if you have plenty of time (as in decades)) you should try to stick with average growth of the markets, and we do this by a diversified, balanced portfolio.

For example, if you try to match the distribution of the Standard & Poor 500, you will get a nice bite for your money. The "true" Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the S&P 500 for 1985 to 2005 (a twenty year interval) was 10.11%, the average was 11.29%. The year-to-year returns are very volatile, which is why advisors suggest you stick in for the long term. That's where most gains are realized.

If you want to experiment with the CAGR of the S&P 500, you might like this site: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

I loved what you had to say on casinos and the lotto! It's all true too! :) Where I live, we don't have much of an issue with casinos, but we do have a Lotto following, and you can, if you number crunch, detect the impact the Lotto has had on our local economies.
 
Any betting involves "House" is much harder to win and gain return! In lottery, the "House" kepts 50 cents of each dollar for themselves and the rest of 50 cents goes to winner. Think this way, if you play a dollar for each combination of the numnber from 000 to 999. That would cost you a thousand dollars to buy every ticket to get 100% possiblity of hitting a lottery number. The winning amount for winning ticket is what? $500 dollars! So, the rest of $500 dollars goes to Lottery commission for themselves. So, it goes same thing with Lotto, and other so called games.

After doing calculation on probablity of winning lotto, it is really ASTRONISHED! Just think this way, MILLIONS of MILLIONS people playing lotto games, not just one, but at least 5 games each... only one game will be hit (Sometimes not). Just think about it, your just a number out of Millions, Millions of number. How can you really win just one?
 
Miss*Pinocchio said:
There are some people spend their money on ciggy, junk food, soda, rent movies, pay $300 plane ticket to go see boyfriend, bottled water, HBO, expensive watches that may break someday, McDonald's, or on whatever...

And we can't buy lottery ticket everyday?

After I pay off these college loans, I am gonna pay $20 worth of lottery tickets every week..... And cut back on stuff I don't need.

The difference is that $20 dollars a week is virtually ZERO chance of winning. That's $20,800 over twenty years.

If you want a solid chance at winning, you'll want to spend about 135 million. If you spend only 1 million, your chances are still almost nil. If you spend 150 million, chances are you'll get a win. See what I'm saying?

$20,800 is .015% of 135 million. Or, you still have about 99.985% of the spending before you get to 135 million. In fact, if you were going to spend 135 million in twenty years, you would have to spend $129,807 every week!

I wouldn't mind using lotto ticket money to buy a $300 plane ticket. At least I would get a trip to Saint Louis or New York City instead of nothing at all.

Hope that helps clarify it!
 
Roadrunner said:
Also, a good point to bring up, it's never too late to start investing!! :)

Very true! Your investment strategies would be a bit different, but it's NEVER too late. :)
 
Endymion, what the heck are you doing here :)
You're driving me crazy with the stupid formulas :giggle:
:eek: :eek2:


Endymion said:
For those of you who are curious, the formula I used for most of my calculations is:

FVA = C * ((1+r)^t-1)/r, where:

FVA = Future Value of Annuity (we're trying to find this)
r = interest rate (12% is .12, 10% is .1, etc.)
t = # of years
C = amount of money put in each year
 
ecevit said:
Endymion, what the heck are you doing here :)
You're driving me crazy with the stupid formulas :giggle:
:eek: :eek2:


*ahems*...'stupid'?? ...Umm, you must mean, 'nerve-whacking' formulas! Heh... :lol:

As I look at the equation, it does make sense...or so it seems to! :D
 
ummm , 'nerve-whacking' is a better term.. anyway, those formulas don't make sense to me.. so I used 'stupid formulas'.. By the way, I'm a mathematician :) .. I studied math.. anyway, I don't like math :whistle: my high hearing loss has made me move to an amazing world so I lost my interest in math.. I now love world of senses much more than that of math.. What about it ?

Farewell to math.. and Welcome to senses :hug:


Roadrunner said:
*ahems*...'stupid'?? ...Umm, you must mean, 'nerve-whacking' formulas! Heh... :lol:

As I look at the equation, it does make sense...or so it seems to! :D
 
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