As far I am concerned, HD DVD will not win. Ever since January, they haven't won a single week. BD is continuing to outperform the HD DVD software sales on a weekly basis by at least 2 to 1. Blu-ray Disc standalone players are now outselling HD DVD players, not counting the PS3 consoles according to recent statistics. Even with the higher price tag for Blu-ray Disc players, more people are buying Blu-ray Disc players and not HD DVD players.
The upcoming holiday season, Blu-ray Disc is going to take on HD DVD in a big way because of the several summer blockbusters heading for the BD format.
Transformers is basically the best bet HD DVD has at the moment while BD will be getting the Die Hard Trilogy, Die Hard 4, Pirates of the Caribbean 3, The Simpsons Movie, Spider-Man Trilogy, Ratatouille, Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Yes, this is a major release), Santa Clause 3, Lost Season 3, High School Musical 2 (Yes, this one will sold like hot cakes even though I won't buy it), Independence Day, Mr. & Mrs. Smith and many more yet to be announced.
Keep in mind I'm not talking about movies we would like to see, I'm just saying that these titles are popular and are more likely to sell quite a big number of copies on Blu-ray. I'm not counting the neutral titles from Warner Bros. but movies like the Harry Potter set and Ocean's 11/12/13 set will probably sell a lot of copies.