Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

souggy · 08-31-2011, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election. [Check out political cartoons about the 2012 GOP field.]

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Lichtman’s earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s decision to challenge Bush.“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.” [See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.]

In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.

Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.]
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

Source: Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012 - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

**deafskeptic** · 09-01-2011, 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by souggy

Source: Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012 - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

I'm not terribly enthusiastic about Obama but when I look over the Republican or Independent candidates, I'm like oh boy. I like them even less.

Of course, our pundit could miss the mark this time but judging from what I see out there, I don't think he will miss this time either.

rolling7 · 09-01-2011, 08:15 AM

There is always your first time.

"i believe this common-sense model wil benefit our nation: Control spending, keep regulations fair and predictable, and simplify the tax code to once again spark job creation. The alternative is economic ruin." Rick Perry

**Beowulf** · 09-01-2011, 08:18 AM

Ron Paul.

Ron Paul.

Ron Paul, you hear me???

rolling7 · 09-01-2011, 09:22 AM

Voted for him last time but.....oops.....the people of America did not do their homework. Remember....voting is not a game....it is serious, you get one AND ONLY ONE chance to get it right

netrox · 09-01-2011, 12:25 PM

rolling7, it's laughable you think that McCain would do better!

rolling7 · 09-01-2011, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by netrox

rolling7, it's laughable you think that McCain would do better!

I did not think Mccain was better than Paul but I KNEW anyone was better than Obama.

DeafCaroline · 09-01-2011, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rolling7

I did not think Mccain was better than Paul but I KNEW anyone was better than Obama.

ANYONE at all is better than Obama? Really?

rolling7 · 09-01-2011, 03:53 PM

Ok, guess I'm wrong! No other person would be better than Obama at creating the mess we are in today. I'll give you and Obama that much credit.

netrox · 09-01-2011, 04:49 PM

rumor is that obama will tell us that unemployment rate will stay above 6 percentage until 2016.

that's why we need Obama.. he's real and definitely not lying about it.

souggy · 09-01-2011, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rolling7

There is always your first time.

"i believe this common-sense model wil benefit our nation: Control spending, keep regulations fair and predictable, and simplify the tax code to once again spark job creation. The alternative is economic ruin." Rick Perry

Rick Perry would have a chance if he drop his creationist agenda.

But instead, people just think of him as a loony-bin.

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 05:18 PM

If some whacknut creationist becomes president (again), I am leaving the country. Such ridiculous ignorance should not be tolerated at any level.

DeafCaroline · 09-01-2011, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rolling7

Ok, guess I'm wrong! No other person would be better than Obama at creating the mess we are in today. I'll give you and Obama that much credit.

I've never been accused of that before. That's a first.

**DeafBadger** · 09-01-2011, 07:18 PM

I am sympathetic to the small-l libertarian school, but I am officially tired of politics.

"Politics and religion are obsolete. The time has come for science and spirituality." -- Jawaharlal Nehru

I'm waiting... seriously, the human species needs to grow the f**k up!

**deafskeptic** · 09-01-2011, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeafCaroline

ANYONE at all is better than Obama? Really?

I was thinking the same thing.

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeafBadger

"Politics and religion are obsolete. The time has come for science and spirituality." -- Jawaharlal Nehru

Nice quote. I'll have to borrow that. Thanks!

darkdog · 09-01-2011, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beowulf

Ron Paul.

Ron Paul.

Ron Paul, you hear me???

Help me understand something. You consistently defend Obama and yet you're a Ron Paul supporter. Ron Paul is pretty much opposite from Obama on nearly every issue. Ron Paul supports seriously scaling back the federal government in every area while Obama wants to expand it. I mean, the guy's even connected to Lew Rockwell, who bills himself as "anti-state". How do you square that? Why support two completely opposite pols?

whatdidyousay! · 09-01-2011, 09:45 PM

I am voting for my dog MARTY !

**Beowulf** · 09-01-2011, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkdog

Help me understand something. You consistently defend Obama and yet you're a Ron Paul supporter. Ron Paul is pretty much opposite from Obama on nearly every issue. Ron Paul supports seriously scaling back the federal government in every area while Obama wants to expand it. I mean, the guy's even connected to Lew Rockwell, who bills himself as "anti-state". How do you square that? Why support two completely opposite pols?

I'm complicated.

I defend Obama because I knew what he was up against when he was elected, so I am not TOO disappointed he didn't fulfill my wishes. He is a master of compromises and the best man for the job at this point. However, I feel that social and economic changes are coming soon, and I simply believe Ron Paul to be best suited for those challenges. That is just my opinion, though, and of course I could be wrong.

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 09:53 PM

Ron Paul is nothing more than the conservative counterpart of Ralph Nader. All talk cause he knows he'll never have to make good on anything. If he were in the hot seat, he'd see it's a whole different ballgame. If you want to be Prez, you gotta play ball with the corporations, the other party, and his own. That's what happened to Obama. Good luck

**Beowulf** · 09-01-2011, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheWriteAlex

Ron Paul is nothing more than the conservative counterpart of Ralph Nader. All talk cause he knows he'll never have to make good on anything. If he were in the hot seat, he'd see it's a whole different ballgame. If you want to be Prez, you gotta play ball with the corporations, the other party, and his own. That's what happened to Obama. Good luck

Exactly, but don't underestimate Ron Paul. He has a lot more support than the media will admit.

darkdog · 09-01-2011, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beowulf

I'm complicated.

I defend Obama because I knew what he was up against when he was elected, so I am not TOO disappointed he didn't fulfill my wishes. He is a master of compromises and the best man for the job at this point. However, I feel that social and economic changes are coming soon, and I simply believe Ron Paul to be best suited for those challenges.

I still don't get it- that a statist is the man we need now and a paleo-libertarian is the man we need next. Oh well.

Quote:

That is just my opinion, though, and of course I could be wrong.

Don't worry about it. I'm human, too.

darkdog · 09-01-2011, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheWriteAlex

Ron Paul is nothing more than the conservative counterpart of Ralph Nader. All talk cause he knows he'll never have to make good on anything. If he were in the hot seat, he'd see it's a whole different ballgame. If you want to be Prez, you gotta play ball with the corporations, the other party, and his own. That's what happened to Obama. Good luck

Well, the unions, too.

souggy · 09-01-2011, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkdog

I still don't get it- that a statist is the man we need now and a paleo-libertarian is the man we need next. Oh well.

Don't worry about it. I'm human, too.

Considering the hot-button issue for 2011-2012 seems to be about evolution...

I don't think Ron Paul is going to make it far as a Republican nonaminee.

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkdog

Well, the unions, too.

Yeah, that too, but Unions don't have half the influence as big corporations.

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beowulf

Exactly, but don't underestimate Ron Paul. He has a lot more support than the media will admit.

Ralph Nader had a lot of support in 2000 as well . . .

darkdog · 09-01-2011, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheWriteAlex

Yeah, that too, but Unions don't have half the influence as big corporations.

That's not true nowadays, at least if you look at money.

Public-Employees Union Is Now Campaign's Big Spender - WSJ.com

Not to mention the highly politicized sub rosa 363 of Chrysler that favored unions (unsecured creditors) over secured lenders. Or the destruction of the DC voucher program with proven empirical results because teachers unions demanded it. And on and on...

**TWA** · 09-01-2011, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkdog

That's not true nowadays, at least if you look at money.

Public-Employees Union Is Now Campaign's Big Spender - WSJ.com

Not to mention the highly politicized sub rosa 363 of Chrysler that favored unions (unsecured creditors) over secured lenders. Or the destruction of the DC voucher program with proven empirical results because teachers unions demanded it. And on and on...

Interesting. I did not know that. Although that's just a single contributor. It's a numbers game. There are far more private corporations and lobbies out there than there are unions, and I'm sure the sum total of their contributions outpace unions by a substantial amount. Still, it's all sickening.

Cowpuppy · 09-03-2011, 09:28 PM

you can claim he ain't fixed the mess but you can't say he got us in it. it known fact he inherited it. general knowledge.
there ya all go makin up stories again.
paranoid I guess.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rolling7

Ok, guess I'm wrong! No other person would be better than Obama at creating the mess we are in today. I'll give you and Obama that much credit.

Cowpuppy · 09-03-2011, 09:34 PM

republicans only have themselves to blame. they can't put forward a candidate that can think for her/him self. too chickenshyt to think there own thoughts. wimps.
romney already lost and appears weak. we don't want losers. perry another moron.
perry's big mouth will undo him.
bachman blew it with the extreme 'change the gays' message. too extreme.

09-01-2011, 08:18 AM	#4 (permalink)
Beowulf Premium Member Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 10,516	Ron Paul. Ron Paul. Ron Paul, you hear me??? Berry likes this.

09-01-2011, 12:25 PM	#6 (permalink)
netrox Registered User Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 4,780	rolling7, it's laughable you think that McCain would do better! jillio and deafskeptic like this.

09-01-2011, 04:49 PM	#10 (permalink)
netrox Registered User Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 4,780	rumor is that obama will tell us that unemployment rate will stay above 6 percentage until 2016. that's why we need Obama.. he's real and definitely not lying about it. jillio likes this.

09-01-2011, 05:18 PM	#12 (permalink)
TWA Premium Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 5,374	If some whacknut creationist becomes president (again), I am leaving the country. Such ridiculous ignorance should not be tolerated at any level. jillio, deafskeptic and DeafCaroline like this.

09-01-2011, 07:18 PM	#14 (permalink)
DeafBadger Ad Astra Per Aspera Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 1,430 Blog Entries: 1	I am sympathetic to the small-l libertarian school, but I am officially tired of politics. "Politics and religion are obsolete. The time has come for science and spirituality." -- Jawaharlal Nehru I'm waiting... seriously, the human species needs to grow the f**k up! jillio and Berry like this. __________________ "Ad Astra Per Aspera" - Through hardships, to the stars. severe-to-profound in both ears, since birth. My Blog Pale Blue Dot (cc: Select Italian captions, then Translate Captions to English--English) "Labels are mentally lazy ways by which people assert they know you without knowing you." ~ Neil deGrasse Tyson

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09-01-2011, 08:15 AM	#3 (permalink)
rolling7 Banned Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 3,340	There is always your first time. "i believe this common-sense model wil benefit our nation: Control spending, keep regulations fair and predictable, and simplify the tax code to once again spark job creation. The alternative is economic ruin." Rick Perry

09-01-2011, 09:22 AM	#5 (permalink)
rolling7 Banned Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 3,340	Voted for him last time but.....oops.....the people of America did not do their homework. Remember....voting is not a game....it is serious, you get one AND ONLY ONE chance to get it right

09-01-2011, 03:53 PM	#9 (permalink)
rolling7 Banned Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 3,340	Ok, guess I'm wrong! No other person would be better than Obama at creating the mess we are in today. I'll give you and Obama that much credit.

09-01-2011, 09:45 PM	#18 (permalink)
whatdidyousay! Registered User Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 8,857	I am voting for my dog MARTY ! Berry likes this.

09-01-2011, 09:53 PM	#20 (permalink)
TWA Premium Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 5,374	Ron Paul is nothing more than the conservative counterpart of Ralph Nader. All talk cause he knows he'll never have to make good on anything. If he were in the hot seat, he'd see it's a whole different ballgame. If you want to be Prez, you gotta play ball with the corporations, the other party, and his own. That's what happened to Obama. Good luck jillio and Berry like this.

09-03-2011, 09:34 PM	#30 (permalink)
Cowpuppy Registered User Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: On The Road Again Posts: 820	republicans only have themselves to blame. they can't put forward a candidate that can think for her/him self. too chickenshyt to think there own thoughts. wimps. romney already lost and appears weak. we don't want losers. perry another moron. perry's big mouth will undo him. bachman blew it with the extreme 'change the gays' message. too extreme.

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