What to look for when investing in stocks

Dennis S.

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It's a spin off from another thread, but I wanted to share my philosophy and thoughts on a topic near and dear to home, pertaining investments and stocks.

There isn't a forum for finance or advice-related topics, so I'm gonna thrust this in here and let the mods place it where it fits best.

Investing and buying stocks is a game that simultaneously excites people and scares the poop out of them. There are so many stocks out there -- how do you choose the right one? Most people who just want to get into the game pick a stock they're emotionally attached to -- "I like their name," or "I saw this cool product they have out now," or even, "This stock's been going up like crazy in the past few weeks -- I'd better buy now!"

All three reasons I've outlined are HORRIBLE reasons to buy a stock. Seriously. You'd have more fun just making a pile of money, dousing it with gasoline, and lighting it all on fire.

But seriously, I'll let on a few tips that I use for myself:

1) Don't ever buy stocks on someone's advice to "buy now!" If you don't have time to research the stock and get a feel for the company, you don't want to get in. It's a common tactic -- "buy now! The price'll go up any day now!" The best stocks are the ones that'll perform over time, not instantly.

1a) Beware of "pump and dump" schemes -- someone'll talk up a stock, saying it's gonna get hot soon, and people start buying it, driving up the price. People start seeing the price go up, and believe it's happening right now, and also start to buy. Soon, the "dumper" part of the scheme sells their investment, and then soon after that, people start realizing their folly of investing in an stock that's going nowhere and start to sell. What happens when there are more sellers than buyers? That's right, the price starts to go down.... wayyyyyyyyy down. The dumper doesn't care -- he got out early when the stock was going up!

2) Learn the company you're buying. Know the officers, the board, the important players, their products. The stocks that perform are the ones you want, not the style over substance ones. Sure, Apple looks flashy, but you darn well bet their iPods filled that portable need for music in the world. So what's next? VOIP? Biotech? Good ol' fashioned commodities? Oil? Gold? The money goes where the needs are.... Study the world to learn what those needs are going to be!

2a) Study those financial reports, and learn what's a realistic forecast versus someone pulling numbers out of their bum. I'm going to post in the morning on my study of GoAmerica's recent analysis by an internet blogger called zibeaster. I'm attaching my tables to this post so that you all can look at it anytime. Parts of my rebuttal are in there. T'care!
 

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Excellent post, Dennis! I have always kept my mind polishing "If it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is."
 
Good work Dennis.

It looks like you did your homework. I respect that. I wish everybody does that when deciding to buy a stock.

Eventhough your analysis is different from Zibeaster's blog. It still points to a higher stock price. That is a good news for me :)

There are few points I dare to differ though.

1) The IP relay growth, Zibeaster's estimates is probably high. But yours may be low. They grew $440K net in Q3, so it is not impossible to grow $500k. Q3 may be the best it can grow, but we just don't know it for sure.

2) VRS revenue, GoAmerica already launched it, so they are already making money this quarter. by the end of Q1 2007, they should've made more than $100 net. The reason is, they already have the lead time this month. They already have the i711.com traffic to attract users.

3) G&A and R&D cost, GoAmerica already stated in their 10Q filings that it will go down. I don't think they are misleading. But there is no harm to make it higher. So I will accept your approach.

Since we are dealing with projections. For all we know, Their VRS can be a total flop or huge success. So the performance of this month is critical. But we will have to wait for 2 more month to know it for sure.

The other factor is, GoAmerica may decide to issue more shares to raise money. That will dilute the share holders value and drive the stock price down. As its stock price moving up to $9 range recently, I am becoming nervous about it. It has raisen too high too fast.

The key to GOAM's future is the VRS performance, that is where the dollar is. The Sorenson hold on the market is hard to crack I think. So there are unkowns there.

There is no sure thing in the stock market. We do our best to study the situation, make our own decision, win or lose, let the market decide.

One thing about GOAM though, I am investing in it, and contributing to it with i711.com usage. It is actually kind of cool.
 
btw Dennis, are you an active investor? I was in RevShark's forum for a while and there is a Dennis there, was it you? I think RevShark is a deaf.
 
I'm an active investor, but not over at RevShark. I'm just a plain ol' CNN and Yahoo/Google finance guy.
 
SteveBlack

I am wonder that you can post here chart for GOAmerica?. So I can view chart. Start with date 2006 to present. Thanks.

Note I like candlestick than OHLC.
 
Glad to read Dennis's post for my learning on investments. Thank you,Dennis. :ty:
 
Can I add to something Dennis, ..... This is a good post and if you buy in something that people use everyday like for example Bic pens, shaving razors

Bicworld : stationery products : bic shaver, bic pen, bic lighter, conte, Ballograf, Sheaffer, Wite-out and Tipp-ex

You will make some money over time. Nothing ever is instant get rich. Just invest in everyday things that people buy everyday.

I agree with you that invest in daily products that people use for their needs. I would like to know if I am outside US, can I invest in this?
 
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