Publishers Could Gain From GTA IV Delay
Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed in particular may fill the Rockstar gap.
by Ryan Geddes
August 3, 2007 - With the anticipated release date of Grand Theft Auto IV pushed back until spring 2008, Rockstar Games' competitors stand to gain this holiday season.
According to data released today by IGN GamerMetrics, two other multiplatform games in particular could capture gamers' interest - and dollars - instead.
For both the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, Activision's squad-based shooter Call of Duty 4: Modern Combat topped the list of games that will benefit most from GTA IV's delay. The GamerMetrics numbers, based on data culled from gamers who expressed interest in buying GTA IV in the last 30 days, show a 91 percent overlap in interest between COD4 and GTA IV on the Xbox 360 and a 71 percent overlap between the titles among PS3 gamers.
The GamerMetrics numbers also indicate Ubisoft's medieval action title Assassin's Creed could also capitalize on Rockstar's absence. The game holds the No. 2 spot on both lists, sharing a 77 percent overlap in interest with GTA IV among Xbox 360 gamers and a 62 percent overlap among PS3 gamers. Both Call of Duty IV and Assassin's Creed are scheduled for a November release.
Below are GamerMetrics' lists of the top 10 games scheduled for release on PS3 and Xbox 360 this year that could benefit from GTA IV's delay:
Xbox 360
* 1. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (91% overlap)
* 2. Assassin's Creed (77%)
* 3. Mass Effect (50%)
* 4. Rock Band (49%)
* 5. Halo 3 (43%)
* 6. Army of Two (34%)
* 7. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (34%)
* 8. Burnout Paradise (33%)
* 9. Half-Life 2: The Orange Box (30%)
* 10. Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (27%)
PlayStation 3
* 1. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (71% overlap)
* 2. Assassin's Creed (62%)
* 3. Heavenly Sword (59%)
* 4. Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (57%)
* 5. Haze (52%)
* 6. Lair (51%)
* 7. Ratchet & Clank: Tools of Destruction (41%)
* 8. Unreal Tournament 3 (35%)
* 9. Army of Two (30%)
* 10. Folklore (30%)
Although Ubisoft and Activision could win big this holiday season in GTA IV's relative absence, Rockstar won't necessarily lose, the GamerMetrics data show.
Since the company announced GTA IV would be pushed back from the fourth quarter of its 2007 fiscal year to the second quarter of its 2008 fiscal year (sometime between February 1st and April 30, 2008), activity throughout IGN's message boards largely indicates that fans of the series are happy to wait for a polished product.
